Carrie Lukas joins The Martha Zoller Show to discuss Obama’s State of the Union address.
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The faster pace of campaigns really is changing politics. As the New Year dawned, almost no one in either party thought the Massachusetts Senate race would be hot. It reached the boiling point at cyberspeed; an astonishing $23 million was spent on the race by the time voters went to the polls.
Scott Brown raised an astounding $13 million between January 1 and his victory on January 19. The money came in so fast he couldn’t spend it all and wound up with a $4 million surplus. While Mr. Brown did outspend Democrat Martha Coakley by $8.7 million to $5.1 million in the homestretch, the discrepancy was reduced by various Democratic groups who spent $6.1 million on ads and get-out-the-vote efforts. By contrast, seven GOP and conservative groups chipped in $2.7 million on behalf of Mr. Brown. Overall, the campaign’s final days saw spending between the two camps turn out roughly equal.
But the quality of the messages clearly mattered. Panicked liberals put out so many negative ads against Mr. Brown that several backfired. A direct mail piece from the state Democratic Party announced that “1,736 Women Were Raped in Massachusetts in 2008; Scott Brown Wants Hospitals To Turn Them All Away.” Michael Scherer of Time Magazine said the move was a “roll towards [the] gutter,” though the ad was echoed by the Coakley campaign itself, which ran an ad saying Mr. Brown would “deny rape victims care.”
There were tough Republican ads too, including one that refused to credit Ms. Coakley’s explanation that her comment in the debate that “we have to get taxes up” referred to growing revenues from an improving economy rather than higher taxes. In general, however, the anti-Coakley ads were hard-hitting but concentrated on the issues.
Surprisingly, few of the ads that sought to help Mr. Brown focused on health care, which about half of voters told pollsters was their No. 1 issue. Instead, most ads focused on overall economic themes. An exception was funded by Independent Women’s Voice, which ran a radio ad and placed thousands of live and recorded phone calls to voters in order to critique the Obama health care plan. Two Massachusetts physicians, Lorraine Schratz and Barbara Rockett, detailed specific concerns with ObamaCare in messages aimed at independent and GOP women. Mr. Brown wound up winning 47% of women voters in the state, equal to the number of women who indicated they opposed the health care bill before Congress.
– John Fund
What do Tuesday night’s election results mean for Democrats? Click play for analysis from Regent University School of Government Dean Charles Dunn and Nicole Kurokawa of Independent Women’s Voice.
January 20, 2010
Dear Representative:
On behalf of an ideologically diverse coalition of millions of Americans, we write to strongly urge that you sign the discharge petition for H. Res. 847. Introduced by Representative Vern Buchanan (R-FL), this petition would force a vote on a bipartisan “Sunshine Resolution” to call on Congress and the Obama Administration to conduct all negotiations surrounding landmark health care reform legislation “in full public view and not behind closed doors.”
The last few months of deliberation on health care have exposed myriad issues on which the left and right sides of our political spectrum are deeply divided. However, robust transparency in the drafting of legislation is one of the few matters that bind all of the signatories together. Simply stated, Americans of all political stripes are united in their demand for an end to the cloistered discussions that mar our legislative process.
Our health care system affects too many lives and too many dollars to allow legislation reforming it to be designed in secret. Should such a bill become law, it would alter the circumstances of tens of millions of families and businesses. Those Americans need full access to any meetings in which decisions will be made regarding final language and details about how each chamber will proceed to the legislation, whether between Members, their legislative staff, or outside interests.
Signing this discharge petition will not be an act of politics, but one of principle. It will demonstrate your belief in the values of transparency and openness in government that enjoy overwhelming support by the American people and have been touted by President Obama and Congressional leaders. Please sign the discharge petition for H. Res. 847 in order to provide the transparency that your constituents want and deserve.
Sincerely,
The Undersigned
Duane Parde
President
National Taxpayers Union
Jim Martin
Chairman
60 Plus Association
Laurence Socci
Americans for Conservative Values
Bill Wilson
President
Americans for Limited Government
Tim Phillips
President
Americans for Prosperity
Tom Jenney
Arizona Director
Americans for Prosperity
Grover Norquist
President
Americans for Tax Reform
William Haygood Shaker
Volunteer President
American Council for Health Care Reform
Dick Patten
President
American Family Business Institute
Terry Francke
General Counsel
Californians Aware
John Tate
President
Campaign for Liberty
Sandra Fabry
Executive Director
Center for Fiscal Accountability
Jeffrey Mazzella
President
Center for Individual Freedom
Barbara Anderson
Executive Director
Citizens for Limited Taxation
Wendy Wright
President
Concerned Women for America
Rick Scott
Conservatives for Patients Rights
Brian McManus
Director of Federal Affairs
Council for Affordable Health Insurance
Thomas A. Schatz
President
Council for Citizens Against Government Waste
Jim Babka
President
DownsizeDC.org, Inc.
Tom McClusky
Senior Vice President
Family Research Council Action
Matt Kibbe
President and CEO
FreedomWorks
John Tillman
CEO
Illinois Policy Institute
Michelle D. Bernard
President and CEO
Independent Women’s Voice
Donald P. Racheter, PhD
Director
Iowa Transparency Project
J.H. Snider, MBA, PhD
President
iSolon.org
Colin Hanna
President
Let Freedom Ring
Michael D. Ostrolenk
National Director
Liberty Coalition
Lew Uhler
President
National Tax Limitation Committee
Doug Kagan
Chairman
Nebraska Taxpayers for Freedom
Danielle Brian
Executive Director
Project On Government Oversight
Paul Gessing
President
Rio Grande Foundation
John W. Whitehead
President
The Rutherford Institute
Robert S. Knego, MD
President
Sarasota County Medical Society
Ellen S. Miller
Executive Director
Sunlight Foundation
Dane von Breichenruchardt
President
U.S. Bill of Rights Foundation
Michael D. Ostrolenk
National Director
Liberty Coalition
Lew Uhler
President
National Tax Limitation Committee
Doug Kagan
Chairman
Nebraska Taxpayers for Freedom
Danielle Brian
Executive Director
Project On Government Oversight
Paul Gessing
President
Rio Grande Foundation
John W. Whitehead
President
The Rutherford Institute
Robert S. Knego, MD
President
Sarasota County Medical Society
Ellen S. Miller
Executive Director
Sunlight Foundation
Dane von Breichenruchardt
President
U.S. Bill of Rights Foundation
Does the recent Scott Brown victory in Massachusetts translate into big government fatigue?
Senior policy analyst Nicole Kurokawa of the Independent Women’s Voice shares that the recent election of Republican Scott Brown to the U.S. Senate is change she can believe in. Brown was elected this past Tuesday to fill the seat of the late Senator Ted Kennedy – an election result that many observers note has thrown the Democrats for a loop and triggered much in-fighting.
Kurokawa observes that Brown’s election not only gives Republicans the chance to filibuster in the Senate, but it also throws passage of the Obama administration’s healthcare reform legislation into doubt.
“And I think the American people really are just tired of the expansive government takeover of healthcare, of the banking sector, [and] the out-of-control spending,” she comments. “I think people have just had it – so this is a very clear-cut message to Washington that you can’t keep doing this.”
The election upset in the Bay State came on the eve of the one-year anniversary of Obama’s presidency. Kurokawa notes that Barack Obama is more unpopular after his first year in office than George W. Bush was after eight years in office. She adds that “people want change” just after one year of seeing Obama at work.
Listen to Carrie Lukas on The Martha Zoller Show discuss Scott Brown’s victory in Massachusetts.
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What an amazing night!!
IWV is so proud of the role that we were able to play in the Massachusetts election, and we are so grateful for your faith and generous support that made this possible. You helped us both turn out the vote to create one of the greatest election upsets imaginable, as well as make it clear that opposition to the Reid/Pelosi health care legislation was critical to the outcome.
Think back. Just a few weeks ago, Martha Coakley was considered a shoo-in to be the next Massachusetts Senator. She led Scott Brown by 30 points among women, even when the general polls showed him still 9 pts behind. But today, Scott Brown won a blow-out victory, and the efforts you supported helped put him over the top. The most recent polls now have his support among women almost even — a testament to the power of the message you supported, particularly in the bluest of blue states.
IWV recognized weeks ago that this election could be very close, but that too many people in Massachusetts weren’t getting the message that this election was really a referendum on health care. Frankly, we expected some of the bigger players to promote the explicit message of the importance of this vote, but when it became apparent they weren’t, we decided it was up to us, and we couldn’t NOT do it.
With your help, we were able to raise the funds to:
It may not have been glamorous stuff, but since we’re about results, it was the most effective way to bringing the health care issue to the forefront, shrink the gender gap, and motivate turnout!
It worked. And, we at IWV thank you for supporting us in these efforts!
What’s Possible in Massachusetts Is Possible Anywhere.
This election in Massachusetts has shown us that anything is possible, both in the health care fight – which isn’t over yet – and in the upcoming 2010 elections.
This election is just the latest sign that there’s a revolution brewing in America. In recent months, across the country, hundreds of thousands of people who don’t typically have time to attend protests and write their Representatives have been doing just that. They have been desperate to send a message that Washington is out of control. They want politicians to know that people really do want change in Washington: they want less corruption and backroom deals; they want a responsible federal government that respects individual rights; they want an end to runaway government spending and empty promises.
And most of all they don’t want a trillion dollar take-over of our health care system.
The people of Massachusetts helped them send that message loud and clear.
Now Let’s Mobilize the Rest of the Country
This victory is just the beginning. We need to take this winning formula and reach out to people now and encourage them to stay involved in this fight all the way through the health care battle (which isn’t over) and all the way through the next Congressional election.
Won’t you help us continue to get this message out?
A contribution of $50, $100 or $250 (or more, if you are so inclined!) could help us continue our efforts and reach out to voters across the country. And if you like what we’re doing, please pass this on to your friends.
We are moving in the right direction. With your help, we can make a difference.
Watching Frank Luntz on Fox New Channel –overwhelmingly people are saying that they voted based on health care. Even a couple of Coakley voters say that they think that Democrats should stop pushing a bill that’s so loathed by a majority of Americans.
This could be a turning point.
The Coakley campaign is bridling at finger-pointing from the White House and Washington Democrats, and an outside adviser to the campaign has provided to POLITICO a memo aimed at rebutting the charge that Coakley failed and making the case that national Democrats failed her.
The adviser, who made the case to my colleague Jonathan Martin on the condition of anonymity in response, he said, to “the current leaking coming out of the White House and the DNC that is chalking all of this up to a “bad candidate”.
The adviser, who cited internal polling numbers to make the case, e-mails that, “There’s more to the story than that. If Martha is guilty of taking the race for granted, so is the White House and the DNC.”
The adviser pointed to internal polling to argue that Coakley held a wide — 20 point — lead on Dec. 19, and that the damage she took between that survey and a Jan. 5 Rasmussen poll putting the race at 9 points came from the national scene: The Senate vote on health care, with the controversy over Ben Nelson’s deal for Nebraska, and the Christmas Day bombing.
The Coakley adviser’s memo:
National Dems Failed to Aid Coakley Until Too Late
— Coakley campaign provided national Democrats with all poll results since early December
— Coakley campaign noted concerns about “apathy” and failure of national Democrats to contribute early in December. Coakley campaign noted fundraising concerns throughout December and requested national Democratic help.
— DNC and other Dem organizations did not engage until the week before the election, much too late to aid Coakley operation
Brown Capitalized on Concerns About National Democrats
— From the beginning, Brown labeled President Obama’s health care and cap and trade plans as tax increases. Polling throughout the race showed this to be the most effective attack on Coakley.
— Coakley’s lead dropped significantly after the Senate passed health care reform shortly before Christmas and after the Christmas Eve “bombing” incident. Polling showed significant concerns with the actions of Senator Nelson to hold out for a better deal. Senator Nelson’s actions specifically hurt Coakley who was forced to backtrack on her opposition to the abortion restriction amendment.
— Democrats concerns with Obama’s Afghanistan plan forced Coakley to oppose the Afghan war in the primary, which hurt her in the general.
Claims about Coakley’s Scant Campaigning and Miscues Were Exaggerated
— Because of the failure of national Democrats to support Coakley, she was forced to devote significant time to fundraising in December. She also released a variety of plans in December and had a public event nearly every day.
— Coakley’s failure to release television advertisements until 12 days before the election was the result of a fundraising problem that national Democrats failed to resolve. Meanwhile, right-wing groups pumped significant amounts of money into Brown’s campaign, allowing him to go up with ads first, including negative attack ads funded by the Swift Boat and Willie Horton groups.
UPDATE: A White House official e-mails: “It’s a little mind-boggling to see political consultants spin the election before the election is even over. There’s only one reason to do that.”
Surprisingly, women and youth support Brown over Coakley.
A Politico/InsiderAdvantage poll released yesterday showed remarkably high support for Scott Brown, especially among two groups that many would assume to be sure bets for Martha Coakley: women and youth.
Just over a year ago, both demographics strongly supported Barack Obama. Among women, 56 percent voted for the president, and young voters supported him by a roughly 2-to-1 margin.
This poll, however, shows that 49.5 percent of women support Brown, while only 46.1 percent plan to vote for his female opponent. Any margin of victory for Brown among women would be notable, especially given the harsh tone of the attack ads being run against Brown by Coakley and the Democrats, which accuse him of wanting hospitals to turn away all rape victims. Brown’s own daughters, aged 19 and 21, took to the airwaves in a radio ad to defend their father against attacks that he supports policies that hurt women.
Even more astonishing is that the Politico/InsiderAdvantage poll shows 61 percent of voters aged 18-29 support Scott Brown (versus just 30 percent of the same category that endorses Coakley). Could it be that young voters are feeling some buyer’s remorse over a president who seems intent on saddling their generation with debt racked up by “stimulus” after “stimulus” and government-run health care? Could the generation that helped elect this president be the one that will take away the filibuster-proof Senate from the Democrats?
Unfortunately, formal exit polls will not be conducted in Massachusetts today, since no one expected such a close election until recently, so voter demographics won’t be available right away. But when the data is released, the Republican Party should be watching – and learning lessons from Scott Brown’s campaign strategy.
