IWV President and CEO Heather Higgins joins Vital Signs with Dr. Randy Tobler to discuss Djou’s win in Hawaii.
Audio clip: Adobe Flash Player (version 9 or above) is required to play this audio clip. Download the latest version here. You also need to have JavaScript enabled in your browser.
HONOLULU — Democratic Party Candidate Ed Case Monday pointed to the website of a national Republican group, Independent Women’s Voice, as proof he was hurt by $200,000 worth of negative ads geared to help Republican Charles Djou win.
The Independent Women’s Voice boasted on its website Monday that it “contributed to such an important victory for Republicans in President Obama’s backyard.”
IWV said its ads were tremendously important is swaying undecided voters away from Case and over to Djou.
Analysts also think the negative ads may have suppressed some Case voters by making them upset enough to stay away from the polls.
IWV’s ad called “the Case is Closed” questioned Case’s voting record as well as his campaign staff hires.
IWV’s website cites a study that said its negative TV commercial “helped draw away from Mr. Case among Democrats, Republicans and independents.”
Case said Monday negative advertising from the IWV as well as Djou himself swayed undecided votes away from him.
“I said all along I was the No. 1 threat to Charles Djou and he set our quite a while ago to attack me and tear me down and he succeeded and now those who participated in the ad are bragging about it. They were also saying I was leading in polls up until a few weeks before the election. They set out to focus their fire on me and they did that,” said Case.
In polls before the election, Djou was the frontrunner with Case second and Democrat Colleen Hanabusa trailing third.
But Saturday when mail-in and walk-in votes were counted, Hanabusa swept past Case to second place.
The negative ads against Case were on the air the last two weeks of the race.
“Their intention was to attack me when independent voters were trying to make up their minds. That is exactly why the attack ads came when they did,” said Case.
IWV president Heather Higgins said, “We are thrilled to have contributed to such an important victory for Republicans.”
Case and Hanabusa Monday were back on the campaign trail preparing for the fall primary and general Elections for the next full two year term for the 1st Congressional District seat.
Hawaii Democrats don’t intend to let Djou retain the seat. Djou is the first Republican in 20 years to be elected to a Hawaii congressional seat.
The seat was vacated in February when Democrat Neil Abercrombie stepped down to run for Hawaii governor.
Case said as he campaigns for September’s primary election he will keep stressing as he has all along that he’s the only one who can beat Charles Djou in the general election.
Hanabusa will campaign the same way she did in the special election by making use of organized groups of union workers, party insiders and grassroots volunteers.
“You know we intend to keep doing what we did before,” said Hanabusa.
Hanabusa said she is also depending support from Hawaii’s Sens. Dan Inouye and Daniel Akaka who endorsed her at the beginning of the special election.
By: Alex Isenstadt
Independent Women’s Voice spent about a quarter-million dollars on ads blasting former Democratic Rep. Ed Case as a “tax-raising liberal.” It was the only outside group on either side of the aisle to spend money on the airwaves.
The Hawaii special election is only the second race that Independent Women’s Voice has invested in heavily. Earlier this year, the group spent more than $200,000 in the Massachusetts election that ended with Republican Sen. Scott Brown’s victory. It also spent a smaller sum – $20,000 – on get-out-the-vote efforts in the special election this month in Pennsylvania’s 12h Congressional District.
Heather Higgins, the president and CEO of Independent Women’s Voice, said the group saw an opportunity to make a mark on the Hawaii campaign as the National Republican Congressional Committee stayed off the airwaves there.
“We thought we could make a difference,” Higgins explained. “We try to pick our shots and we try to play in a way where we get results.”
Higgins said her organization plans to remain active in the midterms through issue ads and an independent expenditure campaign, but has not decided exactly how much money it intends to spend.
Reid Wilson
Rep.-elect Charles Djou‘s (R) upset win in HI 01 this weekend, and Dems’ decision several weeks ago to abandon the race, was the result of a GOP decision to focus their fire on ex-Rep. Ed Case (D), who both parties saw as the stronger Dem running.
Party strategists on both sides acknoweldge Case had the name recognition and the political acumen to beat Djou in a one-on-one matchup. The DCCC quietly helped his campaign, while GOP-affiliated groups, most notably a group called Independent Women’s Voice, focused their TV ads and mail campaigns entirely on Case, rather than on state Sen. Colleen Hanabusa(R).
The GOP’s entire strategy hinged on treating the race as a one-on-one contest. Case had soft name-ID, according to partisan polling. His support came from independents and those who lean Dem. All the party needed to do was win over the soft GOPers to build a winning coalition.
In the end, the strategy of targeting Case accomplished its goal; Djou took 39% of the vote to Hanabusa’s 31%. Case came in third place, with 28%.
But Dems face deeper problems even as they work to convince the media they can win back the district. The party tried to nudge Hanabusa out of the race, arguing she has a ceiling much lower than Case’s.
Hanabusa’s second-place finish will complicate those efforts. Local Dems are already angry with the national party for meddling, and with labor and the party establishment — including Sens. Daniel Inouye (D) and Daniel Akaka (D) — solidly behind Hanabusa, Case faces an uphill fight to win the Dem primary.
What’s more, the Sept. 18 primary gives the eventual winner just 6 weeks to stock up on much-needed cash before a general election. Djou already has $200K in the bank for a general contest, giving him an important financial head start.
Dems are beginning to consider the need for some kind of compromise candidate. Hanabusa is still unlikely to win a general election, they believe, and Case will have trouble winning a primary. Though official behind-the-scenes talks have yet to begin, they are likely to start in earnest in the future.
Dems don’t have a lot of time; the filing deadline is July 20. DCCC chair Chris Van Hollen is optimistic about his chances of winning the seat back this Nov., despite the fact that HI has never booted an incumbent. If Dems want to change that streak and back up their chairman’s claims, they have to move fast to heal what is, at the moment, a splintered party.
By: Michael Barone
Republican Honolulu Councilman Charles Djou has won the special election in the 1st congressional district of Hawaii, the birthplace and childhood home of Barack Obama, with 40% of the vote, to 31% for state Senator Colleen Hanabusa and 28% for former 2nd district Congressman Ed Case, both Democrats. The Djou percentage is different from that widely reported, because I don’t count blank votes and over votes in the total as the Hawaii authorities do. Under Hawaii law, there was no primary in this special election; candidates of all parties ran with the leading votegetter elected. This was obviouslty an advantage for Djou, the only well-known Republican in the race. Democrats were split between state Hanabusa, a pillar of the Democratic machine led most of the last 50 years by Senator Daniel Inouye, and Case, elected to Congress after the death of incumbent Patsy Mink in September 2002 and reelected n 2004. In 2006 Case ran against the then 86-year-old Senator Daniel Akaka in the Democratic primary, which was considered lese majeste by the machine (amazingly enough, Senators Inouye and Akaka were born within four days of each other in September 1924); Akaka won 55%-45%. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and the Obama White House reportedly favored Case over Hanabusa in this contest, presumably on the theory that his reputation as a reformer and moderate would make him a stronger candidate. But Inouye and company insisted on supporting Hanabusa and the DCCC pulled out of the race during the mail-in voting period, when a poll suggested that Djou was leading.
There’s an important backstory here: the efforts of an independent expenditure by a group called http://iwvoice.org/ Independent Women’s Voice. IWV commissioned a poll in the race in April, which showed Case leading and Djou within reach. In response IWV started running three ads prepared by the Brabender Cox firm, one charging that Case had voted 72 times for higher taxes, one charging that he had gotten an “F” rating from the National Taxpayers Union and one noting that he had hired a former consultant to former Illinois Governor Rod Blagojevich (“Advisor B” on the FBI surveillance tapes). When these ads appeared, the Djou campaign stopped running negative spots and ran one showing Djou’s wife talking to camera instead. Subsequent polling for IWV showed Case’s negatives rising, and to the surprise of many he ended up running behind Hanabusa and far behind Djou.
This leaves Djou about as well positioned for the general election as a Republican could be. Yes, his 40% is well below the 50% needed to win a contest against the single nominee of the Democratic party. But it’s likely that Djou was the second choice of many who voted for Ed Case, which would position him well if Hanabusa is the Democratic nominee. And if Case is the Democratic nominee, his negatives are now much higher than they were at the beginning of the special election campaign.
It’s been noted by others that although Hawaii 1 voted for native son Barack Obama by a 70%-28% margin, it has not always been so heavily Democratic: it voted 53%-47% for John Kerry in 2004 and 55%-39% for Al Gore in 2000. In its 50 years as a state, Hawaii has shown two basic political characteristics: it tends to favor Democrats and it tends to favor incumbents. (Hawaii has only two congressional districts, with the 1st typically slightly more Republican than the 2nd, so statewide figures here are relevant). In the 13 presidential elections in which it has participated starting in 1960, it has voted an average of 54% Democratic and 42% Democratic. It voted heavily for incumbent Democratic Presidents Johnson (79%-21%) and Clinton (57%-32%) and was one of the six states voting for incumbent Democratic President Carter (45%-43%). It voted solidly for incumbent Republican Presidents Nixon (62%-38%) and Reagan (55%-44%) and cast pretty strong minority votes for incumbent Republican Presidents Ford (48%-51%) and George W. Bush (45%-54%). Only incumbent Republican George H. W. Bush was soundly defeated (37%-48%).
In addition, Hawaii has never voted against reelecting an incumbent member of Congress—a record shared, I believe, by no other state. Before last Saturday, 12 individuals had been elected to Congress from Hawaii, two Republicans and 10 Democrats. They are listed below, with their political fates; Hawaii elected only one member of the House in 1959 and 1960.
Hiram Fong (R), elected to the Senate in 1959, reelected in 1964 and 1970, retired 1976.
Oren Long (D), elected to the Senate in 1959, retired in 1962.
Daniel Inouye (D), elected to the House in 1959, reelected in 1960, elected to the Senate in 1962, reelected in 1968, 1974, 1980, 1986, 1992, 1998, 2004, still serving and running for reelection in 2010.
Spark Matsunaga (D), elected to the House in 1962, reelected in 1964, 1966, 1968, 1970, 1972, 1974, elected to the Senate in 1976, reelected in 1982, 1988, died in April 1990.
Tom Gill (D), elected to the House in 1962, ran unsuccessfully for the Senate in 1964.
Patsy Mink (D), elected to the House in 1964, reelected in 1966, 1968, 1970, 1972, 1974, ran unsuccessfully for the Senate in 1976, elected to the House in 1990, reelected in 1992, 1994, 1996, 1998, 2000 and, though she died in September 2002, in 2002.
Cecil Heftel (D), elected to the House 1976, reelected in 1978, 1980, 1982, 1984, resigned to run unsuccessfully for governor in 1986.
Daniel Akaka (D), elected to the House in 1976, reelected in 1978, 1980, 1982, 1984, 1986, 1988, elected to the Senate in 1990, reelected in 1994, 2000, 2006, still serving.
Neil Abercrombie (D), elected to the House in September 1986 special election, defeated simultaneously for the Democratic nomination for the full term 1986, elected to the House in 1990, reelected in 1992, 1994, 1996, 1998, 2000, 2002, 2004, 2006, 2008, resigned in February 2010 to run for governor. Abercrombie lost the September 1986 primary to Mufi Hannemann, now Mayor of Honolulu, by a 40%-39% margin, but he was not an incumbent then since the special election was held the same day as the primary; Hannemman lost the general election to Republican Pat Saiki by a 59%-37% margin.
Pat Saiki (R), elected to the House in 1986, reelected in 1988, ran unsuccessfully for the Senate in 1990.
Ed Case (D), elected to the House in special elections on November 30, 2002, and in January 2003, reelected in 2004, ran unsuccessfully for senator 2006.
Mazie Hirono (D), elected to the House in 2006, reelected in 2008, still serving.
The closest precedent to the situation in Hawaii 1 today was the 1986 race for the same seat, which featured both a special election and a divisive Democratic primary and resulted in a Republican victory in November. That divisiveness presumably contributed to the poor showing of Democratic nominee Mufi Hannemann in November. That looks like a good omen for Charles Djou.
Read more at the Washington Examiner: http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/blogs/beltway-confidential/Will-new-Republican-congressman-hold-Obamas-home-district-94777124.html#ixzz0oxJFvLB6
Washington, DC – The Independent Women’s Voice (IWV) celebrates the special election victory of Charles Djou in Hawaii’s 1st Congressional District special election.
“We are thrilled to have contributed to such an important victory for Republicans in President Obama’s backyard,” said IWV President Heather Higgins. “To play such a crucial role in the first special election Republican victory in a district held by Democrats for nearly 20 years is a great feeling.”
IWV launched this ad criticizing Ed Case’s voting record and staff hires in Hawaii and the website www.thecaseisclosed.com on May 6th. The ad buy was more than $200,000 and ran thru May 21st.
Until IWV entered the race, there were no third party ad campaigns from the center right in the state. Soon after IWV launched its ad, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee exited the race.
According to this study from GEB International, IWV’s ad helped draw support away from Mr. Case among Democrats, Republicans and Independents.
Among the highlights:
For more information on IWV and GEB International’s full report, please visit our website, www.iwvoices.org.
###
By: Michael Luo
WAYNESBURG, Pa. — Sam Boyd has been a Democrat his entire adult life, just like many here in this mostly rural, economically impoverished southwestern corner of the state, where the party’s roots run as deep as the coal underfoot.
But in Tuesday’s closely watched special election to succeed the late Representative John P. Murtha in the state’s 12th Congressional District, Mr. Boyd, 65, is leaning toward casting his vote for the Republican candidate, Tim Burns, a millionaire former software entrepreneur who got involved in politics through the Tea Party movement.
“I’m for Burns for the reason I was for Obama,” said Mr. Boyd, a retired general contractor who served as an unpaid campaign liaison for Mr. Murtha in his county. “I want change.”
Whether or not Mr. Burns pulls off a victory over his Democratic opponent, Mark Critz, in what polls suggest is a competitive race, voters like Mr. Boyd embody the nightmare scenario for Democrats nationally: that even committed Democrats will turn on their party.
Both parties have poured money and political star power into the contest, hoping to shape the political narrative heading into the fall.
Senator Scott Brown, Republican of Massachusetts, headlined a rally for Mr. Burns in Washington, Pa., on Friday. (Mr. Boyd got to meet Mr. Brown afterward and shake his hand.) Former President Bill Clinton was scheduled to stump for Mr. Critz in Johnstown on Sunday.
Democratic leaders hope that improved economic news will help Mr. Critz, as well as their party nationwide. But that may not be enough to convince voters like Mr. Boyd, who only a year and a half ago was putting up Murtha and Obama signs across Greene County, the southwestern-most part of this sprawling district.
Mr. Boyd’s path to discontent since then traces the bumpy legislative path in Washington, from the auto bailouts to the stimulus plan to the passage of the health care overhaul.
His decision on Tuesday, as well as that of other voters like him in this heavily Democratic district, represents a test of Republicans’ ability to make the midterm elections a referendum on President Obama and the Democratic-led Congress.
Mr. Boyd, who first joined his local Young Democrats club as a 14-year-old, says he now regrets voting for Mr. Obama, even though he hastened to add that he still found the president personally appealing.
“I just think I bought the sizzle, not the steak,” he said.
Voters here are grappling with the end of the 36-year reign of Mr. Murtha, who died in February. Mr. Murtha, a legendary master of the earmark process, used his powerful position as the ranking Democrat on the Appropriations Committee’s military subcommittee to channel hundreds of millions of dollars to his sagging district. That bounty helped him maintain a stranglehold on power over a region pocked with shuttered steel mills and factories.
Even here in Greene County, a two-hour drive from Johnstown, where Mr. Murtha used to live and a place he treated as the hub of his district, the signs of his munificence are everywhere, from Murtha Road, where the local Wal-Mart is located, to the defense contractor that anchors the county’s technology park.
But now, there is clearly an opening for Republicans. Democratic voters outnumber Republicans in this district by more than 2 to 1, but the Democrats who populate the area tend to be conservative, like Mr. Boyd, especially when it comes to social issues. With mostly white, blue-collar voters, it is also the kind of district that gave the Obama campaign fits. It is the only district in the country that voted for the Democratic presidential nominee, John Kerry, in 2004 and for the Republican nominee, John McCain, in 2008.
Congressional committees on both sides are on pace to spend about a million dollars each on the race to replace Mr. Murtha. Outside groups have also poured hundreds of thousands of dollars into the race. Mr. Burns has lent his campaign $380,000 out of his own pocket.
Advertisements by Mr. Burns, as well as the National Republican Campaign Committee, have almost invariably sought to tie Mr. Critz, who was Mr. Murtha’s district director, to Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who is extremely unpopular in the district, and to a lesser extent President Obama, whose approval ratings here are similarly abysmal.
“It’s going to come down to, do you think country is on the right track under this administration or the wrong track?” Mr. Burns said in an interview at his campaign headquarters in Washington, Pa. “I know the majority of the people in this district are not happy with Washington.”
Meanwhile, Mr. Critz has sought to draw a bright line between him and national Democratic leaders, saying he would have opposed the health care bill, as well ascap-and-trade climate legislation that is viewed coolly in this area where coal mining remains a way of life. He has tried to focus on local issues, describing his job with Mr. Murtha as that of economic development director and arguing that he can bring jobs to the area.
“This campaign is not about Washington, D.C.,” he said during a debate this month with Mr. Burns. “It’s about Washington, Pa. It’s about Washington Township, Cambria County.”
Some voters have decided that Mr. Critz, with his knowledge of the district and the Byzantine art of securing federal money, would be a better champion, even if the earmarking process that has benefited them so much is now roundly vilified.
“Politics is not a clean game, but you better know how to play the game,” Buzz Walters, a friend of Mr. Boyd who runs a tire shop in nearby Rogersville, said on a recent morning as the political talk among several friends grew heated.
Interviews with some two dozen voters in the district, most of them Democrats, found varying degrees of approval or disenchantment with Washington. Some resented efforts to turn the race into a broader referendum, saying they would make up their minds as they always have, based on the experience or character of the candidates. Others said they were so disgusted at politics in general that they were planning to stay away from the polls.
(The state’s primary is also being held on Tuesday, forcing the candidates to battle on two fronts: winning the special election and fending off challengers from their own party so they can run for a full term in November).
It is the angry talk among longtime Democrats, albeit ones who often sounded decidedly like Republicans, that is potentially most worrisome to party leaders.
“I just think we need a better balance of power in Washington,” Jim Stephenson, 62, a retired electrician, said at the Airport Restaurant here, where both he and Mr. Boyd often spend their mornings.
With Mr. Boyd, the Obama administration’s communications challenges are clearly evident. He said he was not necessarily opposed to the health care law but would “like to know what’s in the thing,” calling it “smoke and mirrors.” As for the stimulus plan, he said he only knew what he could see. And, he said, he had not seen the economy improve.
It is the growing deficit that riles him the most, he said. Rumors of a potential second stimulus package last year caused him to sink into a depression for several days. With four grandchildren, he said he was worried for their future.
By: Michael Barone
On Monday I wrote a blogpost noting that a poll showed Republican Charles Djou well ahead of the two Democratic candidates in the first-past-the-post Hawaii 1 special election scheduled for May 22. One reason for Djou’s performance may be the TV ad placed by Independent Women’s Voice targeting one of the Democrats, former Congressman Ed Case.
IVW took a poll showing that Case had more potential to gain votes than the other Democrat, state Senator Colleen Hanabusa, who is part of the longtime Hawaii Democratic machine which held the governorship and the legislature from 1962 to 2002. Case, who opposed the machine-backed incumbent Senator Daniel Akaka in the 2006 Democratic primary, potentially had some credibility as a reform-minded candidate. Last week the IWV put up this ad, which links Case to former Illinois Governor Rod Blagojevich (he hired a Blagojevich advisor.
This is reportedly the only independent expenditure made against a Democrat in this race; the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee was running negative ads against Djou before deciding to pull out of the race last weekend. The poll cited above showed Case running about even with Hanabusa, and far behind what is needed to win.
Independent expenditure ads worked for Democrats in the 2006 and 2008 cycle. Now IWV may be showing that independent expenditure ads may be working for Republicans in the 2010 cycle—even in Hawaii-1, where Barack Obama was born and which he carried 70%-28% in November 2008.
Wall Street Journal-Political Diary
John Fund
Democrats are frustrated that they may lose a special House election on May 22 in the most unlikely of places — the Hawaii congressional district where President Obama was born in 1961 and which he won with an overwhelming 70% of the vote just a year and a half ago.
The rules for the special election for the seat vacated by Democrat Neil Abercrombie provide for a single election with no primaries. That means all candidates run on one ballot and the top vote-getter wins even if he or she only has a plurality. Currently, polls how Republican Charles Djou, a member of Honolulu’s City Council, leading former Democratic Congressman Ed Case and State Senate President Colleen Hanabusa. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee tried valiantly to convince Ms. Hanabusa to drop out, but met resistance from Democratic U.S. Senators Dan Inouye and Dan Akaka, who are still furious at Mr. Case for daring to mount a primary challenge against Mr. Akaka in 2006.
After spending $243,000 in TV ads attacking Mr. Djou, the DCCC has apparently concluded the fusillade has not slowed his momentum. So the group has decided to conserve its resources and is pulling out of further ad campaigns. Roll Call, the Capitol Hill newspaper, says that the DCCC move amounts to “effectively ceding the race to the Republicans.” The thinking of key Democrats apparently is that should Mr. Djou win the special election this month, he will be much easier to defeat next November when he must run for a full two-year term against a single Democrat.
One of the factors boosting Mr. Djou’s chances has been a flood of independent expenditures that have eroded Mr. Case’s image as a “moderate” Democrat. Independent Women’s Voice, a conservative group, has been running ads noting that Mr. Case had voted to raise taxes 72 times and had received failing grades from anti-pork barrel spending groups such as the National Taxpayers Union.
A GOP victory in President Obama’s native state would be a psychological blow to Democrats, still reeling from their loss of Ted Kennedy’s Senate seat in Massachusetts in January. For Democrats who were confident that passing health care would brighten the political atmosphere for them this fall, the forecast is for continued turbulence.
– John Fund
Pundits watching the current political campaigns note many advantages that Republicans have going into November: the President’s party usually loses seats in its first mid-term, the Democrat’s majority is so larger that there are many vulnerable members, and Obama voters who were so enthusiastic in 2008 are almost inevitably disappointed and less likely to mobilize to vote.
Yet the biggest advantage of all is with the issues. As National Review’s Ramesh Ponnuru highlights, a new survey shows that voters, including a majority of Independent voters, lean toward the conservative position on key issues. He writes:
By a five-point margin, they [voters surveyed] think that the government is trying to do too many things. They are extremely concerned about federal spending. Asked whether the government should spend more to boost the economy or less to reduce the deficit, voters break 59–34 for less spending. By a slightly smaller margin, they think that the stimulus was a waste of money. In both cases, Democratic voters are out of step with a Republican-and-independent consensus.
Fifty-three percent of independents join 89 percent of Republicans in opposing “the health care reform plan that Congress passed recently.” Much of that opposition is intense: 42 percent of independents and 81 percent of Republicans called themselves “strongly opposed.” Voters expect the legislation to raise taxes, premiums, and the deficit; a plurality also expects it to reduce the quality of care. Given three options — leave the legislation in place, amend and modify it, or replace and repeal it — voters split 22–37–35.
On some emerging economic issues, however, a conservative consensus includes a plurality of Democrats. Asked whether they think it is good or bad that federal pay exceeds private-sector pay, 62 percent of voters said it was a bad thing and only 19 percent a good one. A new value-added tax was unpopular across the board: Voters panned it by a 67–21 percent margin, with only 31 percent of Democrats approving.
Another poll, highlighted in this post on Bankrupting America, found that while Americans are concerned about rising government debt, they don’t believe that tax hikes are the answer. As Bankrupting America writes:
According to the survey, less than one in five voters is willing to pay more taxes to lower the federal budget deficit. That’s probably because two-thirds of Americans believe that the country is already over-taxed, and more than eight in ten believe that the federal deficit is the result of politicians overspending, not a lack of tax revenue.
Americans are also skeptical that politicians will really pay down the debt if they get additional tax revenue. Rasmussen reports that 58 percent of voters think that even if the president and Congress raise taxes to reduce the deficit, Washington is more likely to spend the money on new government programs than to actual pay down the debt.
This is the real asset Republicans have going into November. Democrats will be trying to refashion their record so that they can plausibly claim to be fiscally responsible or even conservative. Few voters will buy it. Republicans on the other hand can stick to core conservative principles and know that good policy will also be good politics.
