IWV President and CEO Heather Higgins joins Vital Signs with Dr. Randy Tobler to discuss Djou’s win in Hawaii.
Audio clip: Adobe Flash Player (version 9 or above) is required to play this audio clip. Download the latest version here. You also need to have JavaScript enabled in your browser.
Washington, DC – The Independent Women’s Voice (IWV) celebrates the special election victory of Charles Djou in Hawaii’s 1st Congressional District special election.
“We are thrilled to have contributed to such an important victory for Republicans in President Obama’s backyard,” said IWV President Heather Higgins. “To play such a crucial role in the first special election Republican victory in a district held by Democrats for nearly 20 years is a great feeling.”
IWV launched this ad criticizing Ed Case’s voting record and staff hires in Hawaii and the website www.thecaseisclosed.com on May 6th. The ad buy was more than $200,000 and ran thru May 21st.
Until IWV entered the race, there were no third party ad campaigns from the center right in the state. Soon after IWV launched its ad, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee exited the race.
According to this study from GEB International, IWV’s ad helped draw support away from Mr. Case among Democrats, Republicans and Independents.
Among the highlights:
For more information on IWV and GEB International’s full report, please visit our website, www.iwvoices.org.
###
By: Michael Barone
On Monday I wrote a blogpost noting that a poll showed Republican Charles Djou well ahead of the two Democratic candidates in the first-past-the-post Hawaii 1 special election scheduled for May 22. One reason for Djou’s performance may be the TV ad placed by Independent Women’s Voice targeting one of the Democrats, former Congressman Ed Case.
IVW took a poll showing that Case had more potential to gain votes than the other Democrat, state Senator Colleen Hanabusa, who is part of the longtime Hawaii Democratic machine which held the governorship and the legislature from 1962 to 2002. Case, who opposed the machine-backed incumbent Senator Daniel Akaka in the 2006 Democratic primary, potentially had some credibility as a reform-minded candidate. Last week the IWV put up this ad, which links Case to former Illinois Governor Rod Blagojevich (he hired a Blagojevich advisor.
This is reportedly the only independent expenditure made against a Democrat in this race; the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee was running negative ads against Djou before deciding to pull out of the race last weekend. The poll cited above showed Case running about even with Hanabusa, and far behind what is needed to win.
Independent expenditure ads worked for Democrats in the 2006 and 2008 cycle. Now IWV may be showing that independent expenditure ads may be working for Republicans in the 2010 cycle—even in Hawaii-1, where Barack Obama was born and which he carried 70%-28% in November 2008.
Pundits watching the current political campaigns note many advantages that Republicans have going into November: the President’s party usually loses seats in its first mid-term, the Democrat’s majority is so larger that there are many vulnerable members, and Obama voters who were so enthusiastic in 2008 are almost inevitably disappointed and less likely to mobilize to vote.
Yet the biggest advantage of all is with the issues. As National Review’s Ramesh Ponnuru highlights, a new survey shows that voters, including a majority of Independent voters, lean toward the conservative position on key issues. He writes:
By a five-point margin, they [voters surveyed] think that the government is trying to do too many things. They are extremely concerned about federal spending. Asked whether the government should spend more to boost the economy or less to reduce the deficit, voters break 59–34 for less spending. By a slightly smaller margin, they think that the stimulus was a waste of money. In both cases, Democratic voters are out of step with a Republican-and-independent consensus.
Fifty-three percent of independents join 89 percent of Republicans in opposing “the health care reform plan that Congress passed recently.” Much of that opposition is intense: 42 percent of independents and 81 percent of Republicans called themselves “strongly opposed.” Voters expect the legislation to raise taxes, premiums, and the deficit; a plurality also expects it to reduce the quality of care. Given three options — leave the legislation in place, amend and modify it, or replace and repeal it — voters split 22–37–35.
On some emerging economic issues, however, a conservative consensus includes a plurality of Democrats. Asked whether they think it is good or bad that federal pay exceeds private-sector pay, 62 percent of voters said it was a bad thing and only 19 percent a good one. A new value-added tax was unpopular across the board: Voters panned it by a 67–21 percent margin, with only 31 percent of Democrats approving.
Another poll, highlighted in this post on Bankrupting America, found that while Americans are concerned about rising government debt, they don’t believe that tax hikes are the answer. As Bankrupting America writes:
According to the survey, less than one in five voters is willing to pay more taxes to lower the federal budget deficit. That’s probably because two-thirds of Americans believe that the country is already over-taxed, and more than eight in ten believe that the federal deficit is the result of politicians overspending, not a lack of tax revenue.
Americans are also skeptical that politicians will really pay down the debt if they get additional tax revenue. Rasmussen reports that 58 percent of voters think that even if the president and Congress raise taxes to reduce the deficit, Washington is more likely to spend the money on new government programs than to actual pay down the debt.
This is the real asset Republicans have going into November. Democrats will be trying to refashion their record so that they can plausibly claim to be fiscally responsible or even conservative. Few voters will buy it. Republicans on the other hand can stick to core conservative principles and know that good policy will also be good politics.
