Monday, February 01, 2010

The lessons of Massachusetts are not quite as obvious as they first appeared. The election holds a cautionary tale for both parties.

To better understand what really happened, the Independent Women’s Voice commissioned an in-depth statewide survey of those who voted in the special election to fill the late Sen. Ted Kennedy’s seat. 

Let’s dispel one bit of spin and then look at the key issues and voting trends.

Martha Coakley wasn’t the Democrat’s problem. Her gaffes provided fodder for comics, but voters resoundingly said their vote was about issues; for 80% of Brown voters, it was about opposing the Obama agenda; for 81% of Coakley voters, it was about supporting it. The type of candidate each proved to be may have been a reason for not voting for them — 24% in Coakley’s case, 11% in Brown’s– but even among those voters, the candidate’s agenda was dramatically more important to their decision.

Being the 41st Senator was the driver in this election – for both sides. In Massachusetts, all politics was suddenly national: 86% of voters said that that 41st Senate vote was important to their decision; knowing that their vote could make a difference in critical Washington policy debates almost certainly drove turnout for both sides.

Health care was the top issue – for both sides. For 86% of voters, health care was the top or among the top three issues. Overall, Massachusetts voters supported Washington’s health care legislation 46% to 44%. However, for those who said health care was the top issue, opposition ran 51% – 46%.

That spread gets even wider when one looks at Independents, whose oppose/support numbers for the legislation came in at 57%-34%. Even while women overall favored the healthcare legislation by 53%-35%, Independent women opposed it, mostly vehemently, by a mirror image 55% to 33%.

Among the greatest surprises in the data was the tri-partisan agreement that the status quo on health care has been a failure; just 16% of voters, including 29% Democrats, 8% Republicans, and 5% Independents, recommend Congress proceed as-is.

The real terrorism threat: it wasn’t just timing. Much was made of the importance of the Christmas Day Bomber to Brown’s surge coupled with the initial non-response of the Coakley campaign. Indeed national security was an important issue for 63% of voters, including 75% of independents and 82% of Republicans. But well over half of Brown’s voters had made up their minds by early December, and for 69% of them this issue was already a priority before Christmas. The implication? Transfers of terrorists to U.S. soil and decisions to have them tried in criminal courts are going to continue to cause trouble for Democrats.

It’s the economy, stupid. PS: Tax cuts rule. Eighteen percent of voters said jobs and the economy were top issues; an additional 62% placed economic issues in the top three. Given a given a choice between continuing to have the federal government spend money versus yanking the congressional credit card and cutting existing programs, 56% chose the latter, including 65% of Independents. Additionally, 82% of voters across the board think that providing tax cuts to small businesses for job creation will speed up the recovery – including 79% of frequent Ted Kennedy voters.

2010 elections: Independents, and particularly Independent women, matter. Large majorities of Republicans and Democrats cast votes along party lines for their candidates. But while women overall voted 53%-45% for Coakley, Independent women voted 67%-33% for Brown. Given an option between reducing taxes and regulations on small business or increasing government spending, 51% preferred tax cuts while 30% chose infrastructure. On these issues, as well as health care and national security, independent women were lining up closer to Republicans than Democrats, bucking their sex and voting on issues.

An Open Letter to the United States House of Representatives: Support the Health Care Transparency Resolution!

Dear Representative:

On behalf of an ideologically diverse coalition of millions of Americans, we write to strongly urge that you sign the discharge petition for H. Res. 847. Introduced by Representative Vern Buchanan (R-FL), this petition would force a vote on a bipartisan “Sunshine Resolution” to call on Congress and the Obama Administration to conduct all negotiations surrounding landmark health care reform legislation “in full public view and not behind closed doors.”

The last few months of deliberation on health care have exposed myriad issues on which the left and right sides of our political spectrum are deeply divided. However, robust transparency in the drafting of legislation is one of the few matters that bind all of the signatories together. Simply stated, Americans of all political stripes are united in their demand for an end to the cloistered discussions that mar our legislative process.

Our health care system affects too many lives and too many dollars to allow legislation reforming it to be designed in secret. Should such a bill become law, it would alter the circumstances of tens of millions of families and businesses. Those Americans need full access to any meetings in which decisions will be made regarding final language and details about how each chamber will proceed to the legislation, whether between Members, their legislative staff, or outside interests.

Signing this discharge petition will not be an act of politics, but one of principle. It will demonstrate your belief in the values of transparency and openness in government that enjoy overwhelming support by the American people and have been touted by President Obama and Congressional leaders. Please sign the discharge petition for H. Res. 847 in order to provide the transparency that your constituents want and deserve.

Sincerely,

The Undersigned

Duane Parde
President
National Taxpayers Union

Jim Martin
Chairman
60 Plus Association

Laurence Socci
Americans for Conservative Values

 Bill Wilson
President
Americans for Limited Government

Tim Phillips
President
Americans for Prosperity

 Tom Jenney
Arizona Director
Americans for Prosperity

Grover Norquist
President
Americans for Tax Reform

William Haygood Shaker
Volunteer President
American Council for Health Care Reform

Dick Patten
President
American Family Business Institute

Terry Francke
General Counsel
Californians Aware 

John Tate
President
Campaign for Liberty 

Sandra Fabry
Executive Director
Center for Fiscal Accountability 

Jeffrey Mazzella
President
Center for Individual Freedom

Barbara Anderson
Executive Director
Citizens for Limited Taxation 

Wendy Wright
President
Concerned Women for America

Rick Scott
Conservatives for Patients Rights 

Brian McManus
Director of Federal Affairs
Council for Affordable Health Insurance 

Thomas A. Schatz
President
Council for Citizens Against Government Waste 

Jim Babka
President
DownsizeDC.org, Inc. 

Tom McClusky
Senior Vice President
Family Research Council Action 

Matt Kibbe
President and CEO
FreedomWorks 

John Tillman
CEO
Illinois Policy Institute 

Michelle D. Bernard
President and CEO
Independent Women’s Voice 

Donald P. Racheter, PhD
Director
Iowa Transparency Project

J.H. Snider, MBA, PhD
President
iSolon.org

Colin Hanna
President
Let Freedom Ring

Michael D. Ostrolenk
National Director
Liberty Coalition 

Lew Uhler
President
National Tax Limitation Committee

Doug Kagan
Chairman
Nebraska Taxpayers for Freedom 

Danielle Brian
Executive Director
Project On Government Oversight 

Paul Gessing
President
Rio Grande Foundation

John W. Whitehead
President
The Rutherford Institute

Robert S. Knego, MD
President
Sarasota County Medical Society 

Ellen S. Miller
Executive Director
Sunlight Foundation

Dane von Breichenruchardt
President
U.S. Bill of Rights Foundation 

Michael D. Ostrolenk
National Director
Liberty Coalition

Lew Uhler
President
National Tax Limitation Committee

Doug Kagan
Chairman
Nebraska Taxpayers for Freedom

Danielle Brian
Executive Director
Project On Government Oversight

Paul Gessing
President
Rio Grande Foundation

John W. Whitehead
President
The Rutherford Institute

 Robert S. Knego, MD
President
Sarasota County Medical Society

Ellen S. Miller
Executive Director
Sunlight Foundation

Dane von Breichenruchardt
President
U.S. Bill of Rights Foundation

Senior policy analyst Nicole Kurokawa of the Independent Women’s Voice shares that the recent election of Republican Scott Brown to the U.S. Senate is change she can believe in. Brown was elected this past Tuesday to fill the seat of the late Senator Ted Kennedy – an election result that many observers note has thrown the Democrats for a loop and triggered much in-fighting.

Kurokawa observes that Brown’s election not only gives Republicans the chance to filibuster in the Senate, but it also throws passage of the Obama administration’s healthcare reform legislation into doubt.
 
“And I think the American people really are just tired of the expansive government takeover of healthcare, of the banking sector, [and] the out-of-control spending,” she comments. “I think people have just had it – so this is a very clear-cut message to Washington that you can’t keep doing this.”
 
The election upset in the Bay State came on the eve of the one-year anniversary of Obama’s presidency. Kurokawa notes that Barack Obama is more unpopular after his first year in office than George W. Bush was after eight years in office. She adds that “people want change” just after one year of seeing Obama at work.

• run a compelling health care radio ad that saturated Massachusetts right up to the election,
• found two wonderful MA physicians who recorded their concerns and delivered them to the homes of voters, particularly Republican and Independent women, across the state, and
• placed thousands of live calls educating carefully targeted voters about the stakes of this race — the future of their health care freedom — and encouraging them explicitly to get out and vote against big government health care by voting for Scott Brown. (Amazingly, as best we could tell, no other phones to GOTV (get out the vote) in those final days was either done by a woman’s group nor, even more remarkably, using a health care message.  So, thanks to you, we did.)

It may not have been glamorous stuff, but since we’re about results, it was the most effective way to bringing the health care issue to the forefront, shrink the gender gap, and motivate turnout!
 
It worked. And, we at IWV thank you for supporting us in these efforts!
 
What’s Possible in Massachusetts Is Possible Anywhere.

This election in Massachusetts has shown us that anything is possible, both in the health care fight – which isn’t over yet – and in the upcoming 2010 elections.
 
This election is just the latest sign that there’s a revolution brewing in America. In recent months, across the country, hundreds of thousands of people who don’t typically have time to attend protests and write their Representatives have been doing just that. They have been desperate to send a message that Washington is out of control. They want politicians to know that people really do want change in Washington: they want less corruption and backroom deals; they want a responsible federal government that respects individual rights; they want an end to runaway government spending and empty promises.
 
And most of all they don’t want a trillion dollar take-over of our health care system.
 
The people of Massachusetts helped them send that message loud and clear.
 
Now Let’s Mobilize the Rest of the Country
 
This victory is just the beginning. We need to take this winning formula and reach out to people now and encourage them to stay involved in this fight all the way through the health care battle (which isn’t over) and all the way through the next Congressional election.
 
Won’t you help us continue to get this message out?
 
A contribution of $50, $100 or $250 (or more, if you are so inclined!) could help us continue our efforts and reach out to voters across the country. And if you like what we’re doing, please pass this on to your friends.
 
We are moving in the right direction. With your help, we can make a difference.

The adviser, who made the case to my colleague Jonathan Martin on the condition of anonymity in response, he said, to “the current leaking coming out of the White House and the DNC that is chalking all of this up to a “bad candidate”.

The adviser, who cited internal polling numbers to make the case, e-mails that, “There’s more to the story than that. If Martha is guilty of taking the race for granted, so is the White House and the DNC.”

The adviser pointed to internal polling to argue that Coakley held a wide — 20 point — lead on Dec. 19, and that the damage she took between that survey and a Jan. 5 Rasmussen poll putting the race at 9 points came from the national scene: The Senate vote on health care, with the controversy over Ben Nelson’s deal for Nebraska, and the Christmas Day bombing.

The Coakley adviser’s memo:

National Dems Failed to Aid Coakley Until Too Late

— Coakley campaign provided national Democrats with all poll results since early December

— Coakley campaign noted concerns about “apathy” and failure of national Democrats to contribute early in December. Coakley campaign noted fundraising concerns throughout December and requested national Democratic help.

— DNC and other Dem organizations did not engage until the week before the election, much too late to aid Coakley operation

Brown Capitalized on Concerns About National Democrats

— From the beginning, Brown labeled President Obama’s health care and cap and trade plans as tax increases. Polling throughout the race showed this to be the most effective attack on Coakley.

— Coakley’s lead dropped significantly after the Senate passed health care reform shortly before Christmas and after the Christmas Eve “bombing” incident. Polling showed significant concerns with the actions of Senator Nelson to hold out for a better deal. Senator Nelson’s actions specifically hurt Coakley who was forced to backtrack on her opposition to the abortion restriction amendment.

— Democrats concerns with Obama’s Afghanistan plan forced Coakley to oppose the Afghan war in the primary, which hurt her in the general.

Claims about Coakley’s Scant Campaigning and Miscues Were Exaggerated

— Because of the failure of national Democrats to support Coakley, she was forced to devote significant time to fundraising in December. She also released a variety of plans in December and had a public event nearly every day.

— Coakley’s failure to release television advertisements until 12 days before the election was the result of a fundraising problem that national Democrats failed to resolve. Meanwhile, right-wing groups pumped significant amounts of money into Brown’s campaign, allowing him to go up with ads first, including negative attack ads funded by the Swift Boat and Willie Horton groups.

UPDATE: A White House official e-mails: “It’s a little mind-boggling to see political consultants spin the election before the election is even over. There’s only one reason to do that.”

Surprisingly, women and youth support Brown over Coakley.

BY Rachel Hoff
January 19, 2010 3:24 PM

A Politico/InsiderAdvantage poll released yesterday showed remarkably high support for Scott Brown, especially among two groups that many would assume to be sure bets for Martha Coakley: women and youth.

Just over a year ago, both demographics strongly supported Barack Obama. Among women, 56 percent voted for the president, and young voters supported him by a roughly 2-to-1 margin.

This poll, however, shows that 49.5 percent of women support Brown, while only 46.1 percent plan to vote for his female opponent. Any margin of victory for Brown among women would be notable, especially given the harsh tone of the attack ads being run against Brown by Coakley and the Democrats, which accuse him of wanting hospitals to turn away all rape victims. Brown’s own daughters, aged 19 and 21, took to the airwaves in a radio ad to defend their father against attacks that he supports policies that hurt women.

Even more astonishing is that the Politico/InsiderAdvantage poll shows 61 percent of voters aged 18-29 support Scott Brown (versus just 30 percent of the same category that endorses Coakley). Could it be that young voters are feeling some buyer’s remorse over a president who seems intent on saddling their generation with debt racked up by “stimulus” after “stimulus” and government-run health care? Could the generation that helped elect this president be the one that will take away the filibuster-proof Senate from the Democrats?

Unfortunately, formal exit polls will not be conducted in Massachusetts today, since no one expected such a close election until recently, so voter demographics won’t be available right away. But when the data is released, the Republican Party should be watching – and learning lessons from Scott Brown’s campaign strategy.

]]> http://iwvoice.org/2010/01/19/buyers-remorse-in-massachusetts/feed/ 0 http://iwvoice.org/2010/01/19/voters-turn-out-in-metrowest/ http://iwvoice.org/2010/01/19/voters-turn-out-in-metrowest/#comments Tue, 19 Jan 2010 20:21:06 +0000 The Admin http://iwvoice.org/?p=2703 A steady stream of voters cast ballots this morning throughout MetroWest.

By Julia Spitz/Daily News staff

The MetroWest Daily News

Patriot Ledger staff and wire reports

BOSTON —Voters thronged to the polls in Massachusetts Tuesday in a special election Republicans hope will be a national game-changer, slowing down President Barack Obama’s agenda and loosening the Democratic grip on the U.S. Senate.

As dawn broke in the frosty Northeast, the GOP publicly relished the possibility that a previously obscure state senator, Scott Brown, could wrest the election from Democrat Martha Coakley, considered the overwhelming favorite until just a few days ago.

At 11:45 a.m., 501 people had voted in Precinct 5 in Scituate, an unusually large number for that time of day. Big, wet snowflakes were falling and people scurried through the slush into the gym at Scituate High School, the only polling place in town. Twenty to 25 Brown supporters and about the same number of Coakley supporters lined the road into the high school parking lot, holding banners and signs and waving to people driving in.

At mid-day, voters were heavily in favor of Republican Scott Brown in a small sampling of a dozen people at two precincts in Weymouth and Quincy. Just two of the 12 said they voted for Democrat Martha Coakley.

”It’s time to really have a change,” said Catherine Moran, 44, at The Ralph Talbot School in Weymouth, explaining her support for Brown.

She particularly didn’t like the health care reform proposal, saying the Obama plan supported by Coakley would give the government “too much control over our health care.”

In Quincy, at the Elks Lodge on Quarry Street, insurance agent Daniel Flynn, 46, was another Brown vote. He said that “as a small business owner, the cost of health care is already extraordinarily expensive.” Flynn did not like the Obama health care reform plan because of the costs and said his other big issue was “terrorism. “I don’t feel we are doing enough. As the father of five children, I don’t feel secure.”

One voter backing Coakley was Fred Hackett, 82, of Weymouth. His biggest concern, he said, was “the health care issue. (If Coakley loses) it looks like it would go down the drain.”

At the two precincts, there were several supporters holding signs for Scott Brown and none for Coakley.

In contrast to the light turnout for the party primaries last month, Coakley, Brown and independent candidate Joe Kennedy expected a heavy turnout following the national attention thrust upon their race.

A steady stream of voters filed into Furnace Brook School in Marshfield to cast ballots, with about 50 people from the three campaigns holding signs and the school parking lot near full. At 11 a.m. the turnout was more like a general rather than special election, with voters buzzing about the candidates and their choices outside as they entered and left.

Before Hull Town Clerk Janet Bennett even opened the doors of Memorial Middle School at 7 a.m., voters were already lined up outside the doors, braving the slick roads and light morning snowfall.

Within the first 45 minutes of the polls being open, Bennett said more than 200 people had already cast their vote.

Standing on the corner of the side street next to the school were a handful of supporters for both Coakley and Brown.

Standing on the corner of the side street next to the school were a handful of supporters for both Coakley and Brown.

“I think that the policies that the state and the country is going through is something that I’m not comfortable with,” Jim Mellon, chairman of the Hull Republican Town Committee, said, clutching his Brown sign and waving to passing motorists. “And I’d like to see more participation of the people and not ideologically-driven agendas.”

Sitting beside Mellon was the chairwoman of the Democratic Town Committee, Mary Curtiss, surrounded by four supporters holding Coakley signs.

“I really believe in health care for all people,” Curtiss said. “I had a neighbor this summer who died of cancer. If she had lived somewhere else in this country, she not only would have been dealing with chemotherapy and the awesome task of dying, but she wouldn’t have been afraid of being out on the street because of medical bankruptcy. That shouldn’t happen to anybody, anywhere in our country, and Martha Coakley will make sure that it doesn’t.”

Speaking to reporters after she voted early Tuesday at an elementary school near her home, Coakley voiced confidence that she would win, saying “we’ve been working every day.”

She said “we’re paying attention to the ground game. … Every game has its own dynamics. … We’ll know tonight what the results are.” The polls close at 8 p.m.

Brown drove himself to the polls in the green pickup truck that came to symbolize his workmanlike campaign. Pulling into an elementary school in his hometown of Wrentham, the truck had registered 201,171 miles on its odometer.

Brown played down the import of becoming the 41st Republican vote to uphold a filibuster, telling reporters, “It would make everybody the 41st senator, and it would bring fairness and discussion back to the equation.”

Obama campaigned personally for Coakley on Sunday, urging Democrats to get out and vote, and he also appeared in an eleventh-hour TV commercial on behalf of the attorney general.

“I think it’s been a fascinating process to watch unfold,” Republican Party Chairman Michael Steele said in an interview as the polls opened. “A year ago, the landscape was very different than we see it today. … The American people have begun to take charge in these elections.”

A Suffolk University survey taken Saturday and Sunday showed Brown with double-digit leads in three communities the poll identified as bellwethers: Gardner, Fitchburg and Peabody. But internal statewide polls for both sides showed a dead heat

By Nicole Kurokawa 01/19/10 at 12:59 pm

Special interests and lobbyists have descended on Massachusetts, bearing money, volunteers, and campaign slogans in advance of today’s special election to fill the seat vacated by the “liberal lion of the Senate.” The race has become close in this solidly blue state, as the 30-point lead once held by Democratic candidate Martha Coakley vanished in the past two weeks. The two camps are in frantic electioneering mode going into the home stretch, desperately trying to convince voters why their candidate should be elected. But by far, the most ridiculous argument can be summed up in one word: sex.